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Per capita income Rs 71‚305; GDP growth 5.12 per cent

Though the average economic growth rate has not crossed four per cent in the last one decade, per capita income of a Nepali has been continuously increasing.

Average income of a Nepali is expected to grow by 13.77 per cent to Rs 71,305 ($717) in the current fiscal year, according to Central Bureau of Statistics. Per capita income stood at Rs 62,677 ($713) in the last fiscal year 2012-13. The minimal increase – $ 4 – in per capita income in a year in US dollar terms is however hit by depreciation in the value of Nepali rupee vis-a-vis US dollar.

Likewise, the healthy growth of services sector and agricultural sector is also projected to give a fillip to the country’s economy, raising it by 5.12 per cent – the highest since 2007-08 – according to the CBS report published here today. In the fiscal year 2007-08, the economy had expanded by 5.8 per cent.

Preliminary figures released by the Bureau revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 5.15 per cent, though the government had projected 5.5 per cent in the fiscal and monetary policies. International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) had, however, estimated the growth at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal year 2013-14.

Despite the huge infrastructure gaps for the economic development, the GDP is going to expand to Rs 1.93 trillion. “The country in the current fiscal year is producing goods and services worth Rs 1.93 trillion against last fiscal year’s Rs 1.69 trillion,” director general at the CBS Bikash Bista said.

The growth rate is projected on the basis of rise in agricultural yields due to favourable monsoon,” he said, adding that the economy, which has been seeing slow growth during the decade, will breathe new energy this fiscal year.

The data also revealed that agriculture and forestry sector is expected to grow by 4.72 per cent compared to the growth of 1.07 per cent in the last fiscal year. Agriculture sector’s growth is propelled by 12.04 per cent increase in paddy production and 9.85 per cent rise in maize output, it said, adding that the agriculture and forestry sector contributes 30.27 per cent to the GDP, in the current fiscal year. In the last fiscal year 2012-13, it had contributed 31.19 per cent to the GDP.

The second largest contributor to the GDP – wholesale and retail trade – is expected to grow by 8.83 per cent. In the last fiscal year, it had contributed 6.79 per cent to the GDP. Similarly, transport, storage and communications sector is going to the third largest contributor at 7.52 per cent compared to the last fiscal year’s growth of 7.42 per cent, the data revealed.

With increasing earning of Nepalis, the consumption is also increasing. Nepalis are projected to consume 91.08 per cent (Rs 1,756 billion) of the total the GDP. However, the consumption in the last fiscal year stood at 89.90 per cent of the GDP. This increase in consumption means gross domestic savings is estimated to stand at 8.92 per cent of the total GDP.

High consumption will however impact on capital formation. Remittance backed consumption is supporting service sector growth but will bleed national savings.

The economic growth is also fuelled by huge remittance inflow and growth in the service sector. The service sector is projected to contribute 52.23 per cent to the GDP in the current fiscal year. Likewise, services sector is expected to grown by 6.13 per cent.

But the the manufacturing sector – that has been the worst performer in the last one decade due to perennial power crisis and labour unrest – is growing marginally by 2.69 per cent.

In the last fiscal year 2012-13, services, agriculture and manufacturing sectors posted 3.6 per cent, 4.9 per cent and 1.6 per cent growth, respectively, revealed the revised estimation. The annual growth rate also remained at 3.46 per cent in the last fiscal year 2012-13. Similarly, the country had recorded 4.61 percent growth rate in the fiscal year 2011-12.