Worldwide smartphone shipments will slow to 8.3 per cent annual growth in 2017 and 6.2 per cent in 2018, according to a new mobile phone forecast from IDC. Annual smartphone volume in 2013 surpassed one billion units for the first time, accounting for 39.2 per cent growth over 2012.
In the coming year, IDC expects mature markets like North America and Europe to drop to single digits, and Japan might contract slightly. Despite the high growth expected in many emerging markets, 2014 will mark the year smartphone growth drops more significantly than ever before. 2014 volumes are expected to be 1.2 billion, up from one billion in 2013, representing 19.3 per cent year-over-year growth.
As mature markets become saturated and worldwide growth slows, service providers and device manufacturers are seeking opportunities to move hardware wherever they can. The result is rapidly declining price points, creating challenging environments in which to turn a profit. Worldwide smartphone average selling price (ASP) was $335 in 2013, and is expected to drop to $260 by 2018.
Android will maintain position as the leading operating system throughout IDC’s forecast. With a strong presence within emerging markets and attainable price points for both vendors and customers, IDC expects both a commanding market share as well as prices below the industry average. iOS is predicted to remain the No 2 platform behind Android and will have the highest ASPs among the leading platforms. Windows Phone stands to grow the fastest among the leading smartphone operating systems, with continued support from Nokia as well as the addition of nine new Windows Phone partners. IDC expects BlackBerry to continue to be under attack from the competition and its higher-than-average prices compared to other platforms is expected to inhibit its growth.
